Super Rugby Round 8 Preview Part 2

In the second game on Saturday, the Brumbies come off a bye week to face the Cheetahs, who conceded 37 points last week and 57 the week before. The Sharks host the Crusaders in Durban, the former having won three in a row but in turmoil following the four-game suspensions of two of their kingpins, and the latter coming off a defeat to the Bulls. The Lions are back home after winning three from four in Australasia and have a tough assignment in Johannesburg against the Bulls, who started the season slowly but are now hitting their stride. Without their kingpin Handré Pollard though, the Bulls designation as hot favourites is reduced to mild favourites.

Brumbies v Cheetahs     

After conceding a mass of points, including 94 in their two games in NZ, and losing four matches in a row, Cheetahs coach Naka Drotské has revised his team, with wholesale selection changes. However, with the exception of the return from rest of Springboks Willie le Roux and Coenie Oosthuizen, there are no discernible improvements in the strength of the team.

The Cheetahs have the worst tackling success rate in the competition, the most missed tackles on average per game, and lowest scrum success rate. Unless they shore up their porous defence and improve their scrummaging and play with far greater commitment for the full 80 minutes, they are likely to lose again.

David Pocock starts for the Brumbies after coming on in the second half in his comeback from injury against the Waratahs, with the consistently good Jarrad Butler moving from 7 to 8 in place of Ita Vaea.

The Brumbies lost to the Waratahs in a disappointing performance before their bye week but in contrast to the Cheetahs, have looked efficient and effective and creative for most of the season and will be keen to get back on track with a convincing win at GIO Stadium on Saturday.

Key players: For the Cheetahs: Joe Pietersen at 10 – without his composure and decision-making and boot, they’d be in even bigger trouble; Le Roux, who needs to show he is still the best fullback in SA, and Oosthuizen, who will want to stabilise the pack’s scrummaging and test the Brumbies defence with his ball-carrying charges. For the Brumbies: Henry Speight, who shifts from 14 to 13 with Tevita Kuridrani out through injury. Pocock, out to show he can again be the most potent openside flank in world rugby. And Stephen Moore, whose leadership skills were not obvious in the loss to the Waratahs.

The big match-ups: Tighthead Oosthuizen vs loosehead Ben Alexander. Pietersen vs Toomua at 10, each of them crucial to their team’s fortunes in every game. Pocock vs Brussow at openside. And two fullbacks who love to run at the opposition in Le Roux and Robbie Coleman.

Sharks v Crusaders

The Sharks have won their last three games after losing three of their first four, but they have been far from convincing, with a one-point win over the Chiefs two weeks ago, despite the Chiefs scoring the only try, in an ugly 13 vs 14 men game, and a drab victory over the Force last week in a painfully uninspiring encounter unlikely to entice spectators to return to Kings Park. They know they have to lift their performance exponentially to come close to playing to their potential.

The suspension of captain Bismarck du Plessis for four games and then of Francois Steyn for four games does not help their cause or composure or confidence. However, new Director of Rugby Gary Gold is helping to settle the turmoil, which is essential to achieve here at home before they spend May in Australasia. The return from a Springbok rest week of Patrick Lambie, Cobus Reinach, and Marcell Coetzee compensates for the loss of Du Plessis and Steyn, but only up to a point.

Dan Carter has returned to NZ on paternity leave and Richie McCaw is on the bench, which weakens the Crusaders and also makes it less enticing for crowds to flock to Kings Park. But for those who appreciate class, observing Kieran Read in action and watching Nemani Nadolo (a 125kg Fiji Test wing, who has now played his rugby in Australia, France, England, Japan, New Zealand, and Fiji) running around and over and through opponents is certainly worth the price of admission.

Key players: For the Crusaders: Israel Dagg with ball in hand, Colin Slade directing operations from 10, Andy Ellis using all his experience at 9, Nemani at 14, Read at 8. For the Sharks, Lambie, Reinach, Coetzee – all conspicuously missed last week. And with Bismarck du Plessis out, Tendai Mtawarira and Jannie du Plessis have added responsibility in the front row.

The big match-ups: Nemani vs Lwazi Mvovo on the wing – with Nemani 30kg heavier. At 10, two class acts in the skilful Slade and the immaculate Lambie. Crusaders tighthead Nepo Laulala vs Mtawarira. At inside centre Ryan Crotty vs Francois Steyn’s stand-in André Esterhuizen, highly rated but unproven at this level.

Lions v Bulls

Handré Pollard’s knee injury will keep him out of the Bulls clash with the Lions in Johannesburg, which is a significant setback for the visitors and a boost to the home team’s chances of winning.

The Lions won three from four on tour in New Zealand and Australia and return to Johannesburg full of confidence, but on Saturday they face a high-riding Bulls team inspired by their best performance of the season in beating the Crusaders last weekend, and in doing so scoring excellent tries rather than relying largely on Pollard’s boot.

The Lions play enterprising rugby and at times on tour displayed remarkable courage on defence, but that tenacity may not be sufficient to hold out a rampant Bulls team, if indeed the visitors play skilfully as they did against the Crusaders and not as badly as they did in their opening two games of the season.

The Lions are a team without any first-choice Springboks but play as a committed unit more than most teams, and will not go down easily, especially now that they appreciate they can win tight games. However, the Bulls showed glimpses of flair in Round 7 that can rip defences apart – if they have the initiative to keep trying to be creative rather than adhering strictly to a rigid pattern.

What a pity that they insist on playing Springbok scrumhalf Francois Hougaard on the wing, though, where his involvement in games is limited, instead of at scrumhalf, where he could be a major, ongoing threat to opposition defences.

Key players: Warren Whiteley and Warwick Tecklenburg have been heroes week after week for the Lions, while lock Franco Mostert perhaps does not get the credit he deserves. Scrumhalf Ross Cronje’s rugby brain has been key to the Lions. For the Bulls: Jacques-Louis Potgieter, who replaces Pollard. Jesse Kriel, who offers an exciting attacking dimension, far more so than many fullbacks they’ve selected over the years. Pierre Spies, who needs to lift his contribution. Jacques du Plessis, who may be more effective at flank than at number 4 lock, but is doing a great job for the Bulls at 4 lock.

The big match-ups: Whiteley, producing superb rugby every week, in a match-up with Spies, still off the pace and not yet anywhere close to staking a claim to regain his Springbok 8 jersey. Mostert, a promising number 5 lock, up against Grant Hattingh, standing in for Victor Matfield. At hooker, a big test for Robbie Coetzee, selected for the Springboks November tour but yet to wear the jersey, against Adriaan Strauss.

·             Stats courtesy of Opta Sports