World Rugby Rankings permutations: It's not only Wales who could climb the rankings

August 09, 2019
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Ultimate Rugby

A busy weekend of men's and women's international matches could have significant impact on the World Rugby rankings. Here is everything you need to know:

Men's rankings headlines

New Zealand have been number one since 16 November, 2009
England and South Africa are the only other teams to occupy top spot
Wales could end the weekend as the number one team for the first time
South Africa could climb to third for first time since September 2017
USA can reach a new high of 11th, while Japan could equal their best of ninth

Women's rankings headlines

New Zealand have been number one since 21 August, 2017 – and 95.11 per cent of the time since the rankings were introduced in February 2016
Australia’s highest ranking is sixth, which they occupied from July 2016 to March 2019 bar for a two-week period during Women’s Rugby World Cup 2017
Madagascar play first rankings test in Women's Rugby World Cup 2021 qualifying

The Rugby Championship 2019 – Round 3

AUSTRALIA (6) 81.91 v NEW ZEALAND (1) 91.54

Australia win by 15 points or less – Australia 83.58 New Zealand 89.87

Australia win by more than 15 points – Australia 84.41 New Zealand 89.04

Draw – Australia 82.58 New Zealand 90.87

New Zealand win by 15 points or less – Australia 81.58 New Zealand 91.87
New Zealand win by more than 15 points – Australia 81.41, New Zealand 92.04

New Zealand will surrender top spot if they fail to win and Wales also beat England
They could, though, more than double their cushion at the top of the rankings depending on results in Perth, Dublin and London
Australia can only improve their ranking if they win by more than 15 points and South Africa lose by the same margin in Argentina

ARGENTINA (10) 76.81 v SOUTH AFRICA (4) 86.30

Argentina win by 15 points or less – Argentina 78.46, South Africa 84.65

Argentina win by more than 15 points – Argentina 79.29, South Africa 83.83

Draw – Argentina 77.46, South Africa 85.65

South Africa win by 15 points or less – Argentina 76.46, New Zealand 86.65

South Africa win by more than 15 points – Argentina 76.29, South Africa 86.83

The Springboks could finish the weekend in third place, if they win in tandem with defeat for England and a loss by more than 15 points for Ireland
South Africa will drop below England again if both sides win this weekend
South Africa can drop to sixth if they lose by more than 15 points and Australia beat New Zealand by the same margin
Argentina will climb above Fiji into ninth with victory, even if Fiji also beat Samoa
Argentina will slip out of the top 10 if they lose and Fiji and Japan both win

World Rugby Pacific Nations Cup - Round 3

USA (13) 72.53 v JAPAN (11) 76.62
USA win by 15 points or less – USA 73.93, Japan 75.21
USA win by more than 15 points – USA 74.64, Japan 74.50
Draw – USA 72.93, Japan 76.21
Japan win by 15 points or less – USA 71.93, Japan 77.21
Japan win by more than 15 points – USA 71.64, Japan 77.50

The winner will be crowned Pacific Nations Cup champions. USA have never won the title, Japan did outright in 2011 and shared in 2014
Japan will climb above Fiji with victory – even if Fiji also beat Samoa
Japan can equal their highest ever ranking of ninth if the above happens and Argentina also lose at home to South Africa
USA will drop below Italy in defeat, even if the Azzurri also lose to Ireland in Dublin
The Eagles could also drop one in victory if Italy beat Ireland – unless they win by more than 15 points
USA will climb two places to a new high of 11th if win by more than 15 points and would be higher ranked of the nations with Japan dropping to 12th in this scenario

FIJI (9) 76.98 v SAMOA (16) 69.08

Fiji win by 15 points or less – Fiji 76.98, Samoa 69.08 (No change)
Fiji win by more than 15 points – Fiji 76.98, Samoa 69.08 (No change)
Draw – Fiji 75.98, Samoa 70.08 Samoa win by 15 points or less – Fiji 74.98, Samoa 71.08
Samoa win by more than 15 points – Fiji 73.98, Samoa 72.08

Fiji have won the last four meetings since a 30-30 draw in 2015
Samoa’s last win in the fixture came at ANZ Stadium in 2014 (18-13)
Fiji cannot climb the rankings with victory, but will drop if Japan win or Argentina manage at least a draw against South Africa
They could fall as low as 13th with defeat by more than 15 points – something they haven’t suffered since a 27-7 loss to Samoa at RWC 2011 – although this would need Italy to also beat Ireland as emphatically
Samoa can climb three places if they win by more than 15 points and USA and Tonga both lose by the same margin

Women's test matches

AUSTRALIA (7) 78.68 v NEW ZEALAND (1) 93.88 (Saturday)

Australia win by 15 points or less – Australia 80.68, New Zealand 91.88
Australia win by more than 15 points – Australia 81.68, New Zealand 90.88
Draw – Australia 79.68, New Zealand 92.88
New Zealand win by 15 points or less – Australia 78.68, New Zealand 93.88 (No change)
New Zealand win by more than 15 points – Australia 78.68, New Zealand 93.88 (No change)

Six points is the smallest winning margin for New Zealand, 22-16 in Canberra in October 2008. Their biggest is 64-0 back in July 1995
Australia have only reached double figures in six of the 17 meetings, including the last three
Australia recorded their first test wins on home soil last month, beating Japan 2-0
New Zealand cannot improve their rating with an 18th successive win over Australia – but will lose top spot if they suffer a first defeat to the Wallaroos
Australia will climb to a new high of fifth with victory, climbing above Italy and USA
A draw would be enough to lift Australia above Italy into sixth

Women's Rugby World Cup 2021 qualifiers (Rugby Africa Women's Cup)

SOUTH AFRICA (11) 67.98 v UGANDA (44) 38.16 (Friday)

South Africa win by 15 points or less – South Africa 67.98, Uganda 38.16 (No change)
South Africa win by more than 15 points – South Africa 67.98, Uganda 38.16 (No change)
Draw – South Africa 66.98, Uganda 39.16
Uganda win by 15 points or less – South Africa 65.98, Uganda 40.16
Uganda win by more than 15 points – South Africa 64.98, Uganda 41.1

South Africa cannot improve their ranking in victory as a result of the 29.82 rating points between the sides before home weighting is factored in
Defeat for South Africa would see them drop below Scotland and into 12th
Uganda will equal their highest ever ranking of 39th with victory, but could climb as high as 36th depending on the margin of victory and outcome of Madagascar v Kenya

MADAGASCAR (-) 40.00 v KENYA (28) 45.84 (Friday)

Madagascar win by 15 points or less – Madagascar 41.58, Kenya 44.25
Madagascar win by more than 15 points – Madagascar 42.38, Kenya 43.46
Draw – Madagascar 40.58, Kenya 45.25
Kenya win by 15 points or less – Madagascar 39.58, Kenya 46.25
Kenya win by more than 15 points – Madagascar 39.38, Kenya 46.46

Madagascar will enter the World Rugby Women’s Rankings with a starting rating of 40.00 points
Defeat will see Madagascar occupy 41st place in the rankings unless Uganda win, in which case they will sit 42nd
Kenya cannot improve their ranking as a win by more than 15 points would still leave them six hundredths behind Jamaica
Kenya will fall between three and five places depending on margin of defeat
A Madagascar debut victory will lift them to 33rd or 34th depending on the margin

Via World Rugby