World Rugby Men's Rankings preview: 21 September, 2024

World Rugby has published the ranking permutations for the final round of the Asahi Super Dry Pacific Nations Cup 2024 and the penultimate round of The Rugby Championship 2024 this weekend.

Permutation highlights:

• South Africa could extend their advantage over Ireland at the top of the rankings to 1.74 rating points if they beat Argentina by more than 15 points in Santiago del Estero.
• On the flip side, a first defeat of The Rugby Championship 2024 would see Ireland replace the Springboks at number one.
• However, they cannot fall any lower than second as New Zealand are unable to catch them even if they beat Australia by more than 15 points in the first Bledisloe Cup encounter of 2024.
• This is because New Zealand can only gain a maximum of 0.68 points for such a win.
• The All Blacks, though, will drop one place to fourth if beaten by Australia with France the beneficiaries.
• A loss by more than 15 points would result in New Zealand’s rating falling to its lowest-ever mark of 85.93 points.
• When they sunk to an all-time low of fifth for the first time in the history of the rankings on 8 August, 2022, the All Blacks had a rating of 86.13 points.
• Argentina, meanwhile, will return to sixth place if they avoid defeat against South Africa, climbing back above Scotland.
• Australia will move above Italy and into eighth place if they avoid defeat a fourth defeat of The Rugby Championship 2024 in Sydney.
• Defeat for Australia opens the door for Fiji to improve on 10th place if they are able to claim a record sixth Pacific Nations Cup title with victory over Final Series hosts Japan.
• For this to happen, either Fiji or New Zealand must win by more than 15 points.
• Japan’s return to 13th could be short-lived if they lose to Fiji and Samoa beat USA in the third place play-off, although one of the margins has to be more than 15 points for that to happen.
• However, victory for Japan in the title decider will see them climb a place for the second week running, climbing above Georgia into 12th.
• The Brave Blossoms could close to within 0.74 rating points of Wales above them with victory by more than 15 points in Osaka.
• Fiji cannot fall from 10th place even in the event of such a heavy defeat.
• USA stand to gain between two and three places depending on the margin of victory over Samoa.
• Defeat by more than 15 points would see Samoa fall one place to 15th, slipping below Portugal.
• The Men’s Eagles will remain 19th even with a heavy defeat given their cushion over Romania below.