World Rugby Men's Rankings preview: 14-15 October, 2023

World Rugby has published the ranking permutations for the quarter-finals of Rugby World Cup 2023 in France.

Permutation highlights:

• Four teams can end the weekend as world number one in current incumbents Ireland, Rugby World Cup 2023 hosts France, defending champions South Africa or three-time winners New Zealand.
• Ireland will retain top spot if they reach a first-ever Rugby World Cup semi-final with victory over New Zealand.
• If Ireland suffer a repeat of their RWC 2019 quarter-final loss to the All Blacks, then whoever wins between France and South Africa will replace them at the summit of the rankings – unless the All Blacks win by more than 15 points, and they fail to match that margin of victory.
• France cannot go top if the All Blacks win by more than 15 points, but South Africa can if they do the same.
• A victory for France will see them head the rankings if the All Blacks don’t win by more than 15 points with Ireland and South Africa falling to third and fourth respectively.
• South Africa will return to the summit in victory with Les Bleus dropping to fourth depending on the outcome of the Ireland-New Zealand game and their margin of victory.
• Even with a narrow defeat, New Zealand could still improve on fourth place if France are beaten by South Africa by more than 15 points.
• Wales will jump two places to fifth if they beat Argentina, climbing above England and Scotland even if the English win their own quarter-final against Fiji.
• However, Wales can go no higher than fifth, even with a victory by more than 15 points against Los Pumas.
• England will only gain a maximum of 1.18 rating points by beating the lower-ranked Fiji in the third quarter-final, so can only improve on sixth place if Wales lose. This would see England climb above Scotland into fifth.
• The Flying Fijians cannot fall from 10th if Wales end their hopes of a first Rugby World Cup semi-final appearance, although their cushion over Italy could be cut to just 0.06 points with a loss by more than 15 points.
• Argentina will remain in eighth place if beaten by Wales unless Fiji win.
• However, Argentina will become the higher ranked of the two nations if they beat Wales and reach a second semi-final in three Rugby World Cups.
• Los Pumas could climb as high as fifth if they beat Wales by more than 15 points and England defeat Fiji by a smaller margin.
• Fiji’s reward for a second victory over England in less than two months would be a climb of two places to eighth. They would become the higher-ranked of the sides.
• Seventh is possible if the Flying Fijians win by more than 15 points – less if Argentina beat Wales.
• England could fall three places to their lowest-ever position of ninth in defeat, depending on the margin and the outcome of Wales v Argentina.

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