World Ranking Permutations: Ireland have another crack at top spot
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Wales' status as the world's number one team comes under threat in Cardiff this weekend as Ireland could climb two spots with a big win.
Wales and Ireland will face each other with the Irish knowing that a win by more than 15 points would see them top the world rankings for the first time in history once the rankings are officially updated on Monday.
Wales have enjoyed that status for the past fortnight after ending the All Blacks' 509-week reign with victory over England on home soil, but anything other than a win for Warren Gatland's men would see them relinquish that position. An Irish win by a lesser margin or a draw would see the All Blacks return to the top.
World Ranking Permutations:
FRANCE (8) v ITALY (13) (Friday)
- France cannot improve their rating in victory and will only climb if Scotland also fail to beat to Georgia
- France will drop below Japan if they lose by more than 15 points to Italy – they could drop to 10th (equalling their lowest ever position) if Fiji also beat Tonga
- Italy will climb above Georgia if they win and the Lelos lose to Scotland
- A two-place gain is possible if Georgia lose, the Azzurri win by more than 15 points and Fiji lose to Tonga by the same margin
FIJI (10) v TONGA (15) (Saturday)
- Fiji will climb one place in victory, swapping places with Japan
- They could equal their highest ranking of eighth, but this would require France to also lose by more than 15 points
- However, Fiji will fall two places if they lose and Georgia beat Scotland – three to 13th if they lose by more than 15 points and Italy beat France by the same margin
- Tonga will climb above the USA with any margin of victory
- Tonga can also go above Italy if they win and the Azzurri lose, and potentially also Georgia but that requires Scotland and Tonga to both win by more than 15 points
- Tonga cannot fall from 15th place even with an emphatic defeat
WALES (1) v IRELAND (4) (Saturday)
- A draw or narrow defeat will see Wales’ two-week reign at the top of the rankings end with New Zealand returning to the summit
- Wales could increase their cushion at the top to 0.77 rating points from its current 0.03 with a win by more than 15 points
- Wales will drop to fourth if beaten at home
- Ireland must win by more than 15 points to become number one for the first time – a smaller margin will see them climb two places to second behind New Zealand
- If Ireland lose by more than 15 points, they will drop below South Africa into fifth
GEORGIA (12) v SCOTLAND (7)
- Georgia will replace Argentina in 11th place if they beat Scotland by more than 15 points, with just one-hundredth of a point separating them from Los Pumas
- An all-time high of 10th place is within Georgia’s grasp if they win by such a margin and Tonga beat Fiji in Auckland
- Defeat for Scotland will see them trade places with France for the third week running, as long as Les Bleus aren’t beaten
- It is not possible for Scotland to climb any higher than their present position
