Super Rugby Round 9 Preview Part 2

The Force are back home in Perth after their fortnight in South Africa, well rested after a bye week, and have a golden opportunity to break their six-game losing streak against the embattled Cheetahs. The Lions, with winning momentum, a happy surprise package since they were expected by all and sundry to be bottom or fourth out of five in the SA conference, play the beleaguered Sharks. The Sharks were humiliated rather than merely humbled at Kings Park by the Crusaders last week, and a wide range of searching questions are being asked about their set-up. In the final game of Round 9, the up-and-down Bulls are at home to the almost down-and-out Reds, who will want so desperately to turn their season around.

Force v Cheetahs

After seven matches, the Cheetahs have scored a total of 99 points fewer than their opponents. If a team concedes that many points, it is tough to win matches. Their defence is a worry and their failure to score even one try against the Brumbies last weekend indicates that their attack has fallen away too.

They may not boast the player pool of some of the other franchises but they appear to have abandoned the attacking creative flair they are famous for imposing on opposition defences and causing havoc among defenders. And their defence is all over the place. They are playing with little of the excitement and exuberance with which their Free State predecessors excited crowds, and at times this year have been in surrender mode rather than fighting all the way to achieve a best possible result.

They need to change their approach or the players’ and coaches’ future contracts and careers will be on the line.

The Force have lost six consecutive matches after winning their opening round game, and also desperately require a win to boost their morale and confidence and to retain spectators at nib Stadium in Perth. They have six of their last nine matches at home, which should help their cause significantly.

They did show in their last-minute loss to the Bulls at Loftus Versfeld (an undeserved defeat after scoring three tries to the Bulls one) that there is no lack of commitment or will to win. They try to play to a plan – which is not obvious with some of the other struggling teams – and have deserved more success than the log shows.

Key players: If he is struggling with injury, as appeared to be the case against the Brumbies, Willie le Roux shouldn’t be playing; if not, he should be playing better rugby because he is not looking like the exciting attacking Springbok fullback he has proven himself to be. The Cheetahs want him to be a devastating attacking weapon as much as they want Sarel Pretorius to set them alight. As the two forwards who have made an impact for the Springboks in the past, Heinrich Brussow and Coenie Oosthuizen should be the catalysts for a terrier-like performance from this pack. For the Force, loose forwards, blindside Steve Mafi, rookie openside  Kane Koteka, and accomplished number 8 Ben McCalman play a vital role, especially in the continued absence of Matt Hodgson. The Force cause would be richly boosted by Sias Ebersohn displaying his multiple skills consistently rather than haphazardly.

The big match-ups: Ebersohn, a former Cheetahs 10, up against Joe Pietersen. In midfield, Johann Sadie and Francois Venter vs the much improved duo Kyle Godwin and Luke Burton. At openside flank, the experienced Brussow vs Koteka, a Super Rugby novice but earning high ratings.

Lions v Sharks

The Lions are on a high after winning three from four in Australasia, and then their daring last-movement try to beat the Bulls last Saturday, while the Sharks are on anything but a high.

With their captain Bismarck du Plessis, plus Francois Steyn, plus stand-in captain Jean Deysel all suspended for foul play, another stand-in captain Patrick Lambie – the class act in the team – injured and out for six weeks, and Pieter-Steph du Toit’s knee injury keeping him out long-term, the Sharks depth is being tested.

The manner of their thrashing by the Crusaders last weekend was an embarrassment for players and coaches, which means their resolve and commitment is under intense scrutiny too. No wonder coach Gary Gold is putting a new-look team on the field on Saturday.

The Lions do not boast any players who are likely selections for a Springbok starting XV, but they play with an enthusiasm and enterprise and an endeavour to execute a carefully planned game strategy. The players are coaches are earning well-deserved accolades.

Can the under-achieving Sharks get their minds right and win a game they would in a pre-season prediction have been expected to win at a canter, but for which they are currently underdogs? The Lions have won only one of their last 11 clashes with the Sharks (one draw, nine defeats), but if they keep their positive momentum and the Sharks cannot lift themselves out of miserable doldrums, the Lions could well defy this trend of previous results to win on Saturday.

Key players: For the Lions: Jaco Kriel, starting ahead of Derick Minnie at openside; Sevens Springbok Mark Richards making his Super Rugby debut at left wing – about time too, since he is a better player than others who have had opportunities, Faf de Klerk, getting a chance to cement his place as starting scrumhalf after his game-winning heroics last week; and as always, the consistently outstanding Warren Whiteley and Warwick Tecklenburg. For the Sharks: Odwa Ndungane, now at fullback, centres Waylon Murray and André Esterhuizen, who have looked so mediocre, loosehead  Dale Chadwick, standing in for Beast Mtawarira, and hooker  Franco Marais, in for Bismarck du Plessis. And their fourth captain of the season, Marco Wentzel.

The big match-ups: At 10, Elton Jantjies, playing and kicking well and defending securely, up against Fred Zeilinga now that Lambie and Steyn are out; Zeilinga needs to show he is more than merely a goalkicker. Whiteley vs Ryan Kankowski at 8 and Renaldo Bothma vs Tecklenburg at blindside flank. One-Test Springbok tighthead Julian Redelinghuys scrummaging against Chadwick.

Bulls v Reds

The Bulls have been a proverbial curate’s egg, with the quality of their performances varying from excellent to awful, within games as well as from match to match. Their lack of consistency will be exacerbated by Victor Matfield being out for three to four weeks, as the role he plays as 5 lock and a leader and in the composure he extends to teammates, is crucial to the Bulls success, especially since captain Pierre Spies is still way below his best.

Handré Pollard, the kingpin around whom their victories are built, remains on the sidelines, as does Jan Serfontein, while Adriaan Strauss takes a mandatory Springbok break.

The Reds are capable of so much more than they have delivered in 2015. They lack direction and leadership. If there is in fact a clearly laid down game plan to which they are endeavouring to adhere, the execution is wayward. This is not a bad group of players lacking in skill or acumen, but they are under-achieving. The Queensland hierarchy cannot be happy with the job Richard Graham is doing as head coach. If the Reds do not win at least one of their two games in South Africa – and next week’s match is against the Cheetahs, who have been similarly woeful – the coach must surely be replaced at short notice.

The loss to injury of Quade Cooper, just getting back into his game, is a blow, while James Horwill stays at home after his second red card of the season, highly fortunate to be suspended for only one week. James O’Connor is not available either, with a recurrence of his calf strain – a massive setback since he is among the most skilful, elusive ball-carriers in the world and if the Reds were to give him more ball he’d win games for them. Jake Schatz is injured too. Better news for the Reds is that Karmichael Hunt is back in the starting line-up at fullback after his off-field problems.

The Bulls should win, but the Reds must surely stop playing so far below their potential at some stage.

Key players: For the Bulls: Jacques-Louis Potgieter, again in for Pollard, and Burger Odendaal, again replacing Serfontein. Rudy Paige at 9, under pressure to show he is more than a link who doesn’t threaten defences. Jacques du Plessis, perhaps more effective at flank than lock, but playing excellent rugby at lock. The highly regarded but injury-tormented flank Arno Botha, now back from his latest injury. For the Reds: If James Slipper is a strong leader bringing out the best in his players, it is not obvious to those outside the team; as captain he must bear some responsibility for the lacklustre Reds performances. His leadership is crucial. Liam Gill, who was superb at openside last weekend; if only all his teammates played with his dynamism. Will Genia, who can offer more than he is delivering. Consistently effective Adam Thomson, who moves from 6 to 8 in the absence of Schatz.

The big match-ups: Gill vs Deon Stegmann at openside, hookers Saia Fainga’a and Callie Visagie, at scrumhalf/halfback Genia vs Paige, and fullbacks Hunt and the exciting young Jesse Kriel. On the wing, Chris Feauai-Sautia vs Francois Hougaard, still marking time on the wing with no opportunity to advance his claim to be Springbok back-up 9 to Fourie du Preez.