Super Rugby Round 6 Preview Part 1

The Hurricanes are now the only unbeaten team, winning four from four, though they trail the Brumbies on the overall standings, with the Brumbies having lost one of their five games but earning four bonus points.

The Brumbies are well ahead in the Australian conference, while in the SA conference the Stormers have the Sharks and Bulls chasing hard. The NZ conference is the tightest, with the Chiefs and Highlanders pushing the Hurricanes.

The most absorbing games of Round 6 are likely to be Highlanders vs Hurricanes in Dunedin, the rejuvenated Sharks vs the Chiefs, suffering midfield injury problems, in Durban, and the Australian derby between the Waratahs and Brumbies in Sydney.

Highlanders v Hurricanes

For entertainment value, this looks set to be a cracker, perhaps producing the ‘high octane’ game envisaged for Super Rugby 2015 by referees’ boss Lyndon Bray but thus far seen only in glimpses.

It is 12 years since the Hurricanes have won five consecutive games, and it won’t be easy in Dunedin, as the Waratahs discovered last weekend, but they have looked the part up to now in 2015. Dane Coles takes an All Black mini-sabbatical while recovering from minor injury this week but Cory Jane is back from injury, and we have the appetite-whetting prospect of a Julian Savea, Ma'a Nonu, Conrad Smith, Cory Jane three-quarter line.

Is there a better 11 to 14 combination in world rugby? Of course, the Highlanders will say their Patrick Osborne, Shaun Treeby, Malakai Fekitoa, Waisake Naholo combination is similarly lethal.

The most interesting stats for the teams are that the Hurricanes lead the competition in average number of tackles made and success rate in tackling, passes made, turnovers won, and scrummaging success. The Highlanders lead the teams in line-out success, but while winning the second most turnovers on average, they’ve also conceded more turnovers per game than every team other than the Waratahs.

Key players: For the Hurricanes: The brilliant Julian Savea (is there a more potent attacking ball-carrier in the rugby world right now?) and his sometimes underrated openside flank younger brother Ardie Savea. Cory Jane – keen to show he is still the best right wing in NZ. For the Highlanders: Dan Pryor, who starts at openside flank in place of the injured Shane Christie and John Hardie; Malakai Fekitoa – having a real go at usurping Conrad Smith’s All Black 13 jersey; blindside flank Elliot Dixon, who has been outstanding week after week.

The big match-ups: Hurricanes right wing Cory Jane vs the very much in-form Highlanders left wing Patrick Osborne. Perhaps the big clash – two of the best outside centres in the world: Malakai Fekitoa vs Conrad Smith. Highly experienced All Black tighthead Ben Franks up against inexperienced Highlanders loosehead Brendon Edmonds.

Rebels v Lions

The Rebels have won their two away games this year and lost their two home games. In fact, strangely, they’ve lost six in a row in Melbourne. On Friday, against the willing and passionately keen but often outgunned Lions, the Rebels have an ideal opportunity to break their losing home streak.

The Rebels play with commendable physicality and are neatly organised. They beat the Crusaders in the opening round and gave the Waratahs and Brumbies tough games before going down, and then beat the struggling Force. They are not to be underrated as potential giant-killers against any team, and this week they face a team resembling tournament minnows rather than heavyweights.

The Lions determination is shown in their top ranking for team average of fewest tackles missed per game, but their big problem is that they come 15^th out of 15 teams in number of tries scored. It’s tough to win matches if you average well under one try per game.

Coach Johan Ackermann has made a number of changes to his starting line-up, including the switching of Elton Jantjies from 10 to 12. He is a very different inside centre to the typical SA prototype. The changes had better work for the team or their month in Australasia could seem an endless mission.

With Jack Debreczeni’s knee injury keeping him out of the line-up, Mike Harris moves from 15 to 10 for the Rebels – not an easy adjustment, and the immediate success of his transition will be important to the Rebels performance.

Key players: For the visitors: Warren Whiteley, who has the best tackling success stats in Super Rugby through the first five rounds. Jaco van der Walt, who is rated a big prospect as a 10 – can he make an impact at15? Armand van der Merwe – rated by more than a few in Johannesburg as a more formidable presence at hooker than the coaches’ usual preference, Robbie Coetzee. For the Rebels: Much revolves around Harris at 10. The 2013 and 2014 Australian U20 fullback Jonah Placid, making his Rebels debut. Blindside flank Sean McMahon, one of the standout players in Super Rugby in February/March.

The big match-ups: An indication of potentially exciting futures for the two fullbacks, Jonah Placid and Jaco van der Walt, each with an opportunity to break into the big-time. At 8, the captains Scott Higginbotham vs Warren Whiteley. On the wing, Dom Shipperley, playing his 50^th Super game, vs Courtnall Skosan, who needs to prove he has what it takes to play at Super level.

Crusaders v Cheetahs

In the first game on Saturday, we have the Crusaders, with spirits reinvigorated after their smashing of the Lions last week, up against the Cheetahs, who made the long journey from Bloemfontein to Christchurch after being convincingly beaten by the Sharks at home at the Free State Stadium.

The Cheetahs have won only one of their last 11 games away from home, and in the five matches outside SA, have conceded an average of 39 points. In 2015, they have had an average of 29.8 points scored against them per game. How do you win games giving away points so liberally?

The Crusaders looked so much better in Round 5 than against the Rebels and Chiefs in earlier rounds, but they have still beaten fewer defenders than any other team, and have conceded more tries (9) than they have scored (8) this year. Will this be another Crusaders year of a sluggish start followed by a gallop and sprint to be serious contenders for the trophy? They got Dan Carter, Sam Whitelock, and Kieran Read back last week from injury and mandatory All Black sabbatical, and though Richie McCaw is on his rest week, Israel Dagg returns, and Todd Blackadder will want those who doubt his coaching prowess to eat their words.

It’d come as a shock if they don’t win and win well – especially against opponents who concede points with unusual generosity.

Key players: The best news for the visitors is that Joe Pietersen, a late withdrawal last week, is back, which means they have the composure and direction and decision-making at 10 they lacked against the Sharks – plus his accurate goal-kicking boot.  The return of Heinrich Brussow from Japan and concussion added an extra dimension at breakdown against the Sharks, and he will perform what his fans consider his inimitable tricks again. For the home side, Israel Dagg, returning from injury to play his second game of the season; hooker Codie Taylor, given a start ahead of Ben Funnell; Andy Ellis, who brings far more than to the Crusaders than his rookie replacement Mitchell Drummond was managing.

The big match-ups: The openside flanks, Brussow vs Matt Todd. At inside centre, Dan Carter vs François Venter. In the front row, Wyatt Crockett, who destroyed the Lions scrum last week, up against Coenie Oosthuizen. At 5 lock, Cheetahs captain François Uys vs Sam Whitelock.

·         Stats courtesy of Opta Sports