Super Rugby: Semi Final Preview

Super Rugby’s also-ran teams are busy with post-competition analysis, handing out the requisite commendations and admonitions, and deciding on necessary recriminations and reappointments or replacements. The big four are fighting out the destiny of the championship trophy, playing their semi-final games on Saturday.

Hurricanes vs Brumbies

The Hurricanes have a dismal semi-finals record in Super Rugby, with five defeats in six semi-final games, being well beaten in four of those five losses. The Brumbies have won six of their eight Super semi-finals. The Brumbies have also won their last four games against the Hurricanes.

However, history counts for little come Saturday. The Hurricanes have been by some way the standout team in Super Rugby 2015, ending 13 log points ahead of the second-placed Highlanders, and 19 points clear of the Brumbies.

The Brumbies travelled from Canberra to Cape Town to smash the Stormers by six tries to one in their Qualifier. Will the energy-sapping flights across the world from Cape Town to Wellington make winning this semi-final a bridge too far? The Hurricanes have enjoyed a rest while the Brumbies have been travelling and playing. Will this rest have energised them or have taken the edge off?

These two teams are each adept at conjuring up tries, both through meticulous planning and through players relying on skills and instinct. The game should be a humdinger.

Key players:
For the Hurricanes, their consummately sublime 10 11 12 13 combination, Beauden Barrett, Julian Savea, Ma’a Nonu, Conrad Smith, plus two of New Zealand’s most prodigiously talented rising stars, Nehe Milner-Skudder and Ardie Savea. For the Brumbies, the extraordinary David Pocock, one of the most influential players in the modern game, and his loose forward partners, Scott Fardy and Ita Vaea, plus inside backs Nic White, Christian Lealiifano, and Matt Toomua, and their best attacking back, Qualifier three-try hero Joe Tomane.

The big match-ups:
Toomua vs Nonu at 12, Milner-Skudder vs Tomane out wide, Pocock vs Savea at openside, and as scrummagers, Scott Sio vs Ben Franks, and Ben Alexander vs Reggie Goodes.

Waratahs vs Highlanders

SANZAR’s conference system machinations contrive to mean that the Highlanders, with 53 log points, are placed fourth on the log, while the Waratahs, with 52 points, are awarded second place and a home semi-final.

Stats can be deceptive. The Highlanders have kicked out of hand more than any team other than the Sharks, while the Waratahs have kicked out of hand less than any other team – but we know both teams kick as an intelligent means to an effective end and can attack magnificently with ball in hand. And while the Highlanders have won the most turnovers in the competition this year and the Waratahs the fewest, this doesn’t mean the Highlanders will win more turnovers in a one-off knockout match.

We have two balanced, even-matched teams, each with potential match-winning individuals in their ranks. If the New South Wales defence can stifle the destructively brilliant Otago attacking backs, it would go a long way to securing a win for the defending champions.

Unlike the recently much travelled Brumbies, the Highlanders played their Qualifier at home while the Waratahs rested in Sydney, meaning travel weariness is not a factor in this semi-final.

Key players:
For the Waratahs, their most incisive attacking backs Israel Folau and Taqele Naiyaravoro, their brilliant openside Michael Hooper, and Bernard Foley at 10, for direction of their game plan plus goalkicking. For the Highlanders, five of the best attacking backs in Super Rugby, Ben Smith, Waisake Naholo, Malakai Fekitoa, Patrick Osborne, and Aaron Smith, plus rookie openside James Lentjes.

The big match-ups:
The best fullbacks in world rugby, Folau vs Ben Smith. At outside centre, Fekitoa vs Adam Ashley Cooper. Phipps vs Aaron Smith at 9. Can Lentjes match Hooper at openside? Hookers Tatafu Polota-Nau and Liam Coltman, both of whose throwing-in can be wayward.