Preview: New Zealand v Argentina

If you had to bet the family farm on a team to win the World Cup, you’d almost certainly put your money on New Zealand. There are perhaps seven nations with a realistic possibility of winning the World Cup, but the All Blacks are the probables, by some way the favourites. A lot can go wrong for them, as at past tournaments, but any implosion is most unlikely to be in the pool games.

Argentina scored an impressive win over the Springboks in Durban in August, their scrummaging is always formidable, their halfbacks kick for position accurately, and their lineout driving maul can be potent, but their backs – except against the chaotic Bok defence six weeks ago – seldom provide a real threat.

The All Blacks are kings of the rugby world for a reason – they have a host of wonderfully talented players and do everything with skill, planning meticulously and executing their game-plan with enviable aplomb. They were below their best in the Rugby Championship but it would come as a huge surprise if they were not to lift their game and perform superbly over the next seven weeks.

The weakest feature of their Rugby Championship games was their defence of the lineout driving maul, exploited so cleverly by Argentina in Christchurch, but their endeavour to improve this aspect of defence has been somewhere between painstakingly detailed and obsessive, and the improvement should be substantial.

Expect a fierce onslaught from passionate Los Pumas, throwing all they have at beating the All Blacks, but the defending champions to be too skilful and to win well. The All Blacks loose-forwards and backs are just too creative and brimming with flair to be held in check by Argentina for 80 minutes.

Key players:
Richie McCaw, the openside maestro, Dan Carter, with his masterful skill and vision, Aaron Smith, around whose decision-making and dictating of game tempo the All Blacks game revolves, Ben Smith, underrated sometimes for the enormous impact his skill set has on matches, and Nehe Milner-Sudder for his attacking magic. For Los Pumas, Leicester’s Marcos Ayerza, the world’s most destructive scrummaging loosehead, wily hooker and decisive captain Agustin Creevy, plus Juan Martin Fernandez Lobbe, Toulon’s accomplished flank in his third World Cup, and their 10-12 duo, Nicolas Sanchez and Juan Martin Hernandez.

The big match-ups:
Carter vs Sanchez at 10, Aaron Smith vs Tomas Cubelli at 9, Conrad Smith vs Marcelo Bosch at 13, and a titanic scrummaging battle between Ayerza and Owen Franks.