Ireland in danger of falling to 5th in the World

World Rugby has published the ranking permutations for the men's internationals in Europe, Asia and Africa this weekend, including the Autumn Nations Series, Men's Elgon Cup and Rugby Europe competitions. 

Permutation highlights:

• With every team in the top 20 in action bar Samoa there could be a lot of movement this weekend.
• As many as three teams – South Africa, New Zealand and Ireland – could finish the weekend at number one in the rankings.
• However, South Africa are guaranteed to stay on top if they beat England at Allianz Stadium on Saturday.
• New Zealand will replace South Africa at number one if they beat France at the Stade de France and the Springboks fail to win. It would be the first time the All Blacks sit atop the rankings since the Rugby World Cup 2019 semi-final
• Ireland need to beat Argentina in the weekend’s opening Autumn Nations Series match on Friday and hope that both South Africa and New Zealand lose if they are to immediately return to number one in the world.
• Back-to-back home defeats for Ireland will see them slip another place to fourth if the margin is by more than 15 points and both South Africa and New Zealand are victorious.
• In this scenario Argentina will climb two places to third and make up the first all-southern hemisphere top three since 8 November, 2021 (then New Zealand, South Africa, Australia).
• Ireland will drop two places for the second week running – to fifth – if they lose by more than 15 points and France repeat their Rugby World Cup 2023 opening match victory over New Zealand. This will be regardless of the England-South Africa result.
• With Scotland unable to improve their rating by beating Portugal this weekend – as a result of the 13.88 points difference between the teams before home weighting is factored in – then England only need to draw with South Africa to displace their Calcutta Cup rivals in sixth.
• England cannot go any higher, though, even if beat the world champions by more than 15 points as the gap between themselves and a beaten France or Argentina is too large to overcome.
• Australia’s forward momentum could continue this weekend, but they would need to beat Wales by more than 15 points in Cardiff and England to lose by the same margin.
• This would lift the Wallabies above England into seventh, but they could jump another place if Scotland also fail to beat Portugal in Edinburgh. Eighth for England would equal their lowest-ever position.
• For Italy to recover one of the two places they lost in defeat to Argentina last weekend, they need to beat Georgia and hope that Fiji slip up against the lower-ranked Spain.
• A record 11th straight defeat for Wales will see them drop to an all-time low of 12th if Georgia avoid defeat in Italy.
• They cannot fall any lower, although Japan will leapfrog Samoa into 13th if they come out on top against Uruguay in France.
• Georgia can enter the top 10 for the first time since the rankings were introduced in October 2003 if they beat the Azzurri by more than 15 points – unless Wales win by the same margin.
• Portugal can only improve on 15th place with a first-ever win over Scotland if Japan lose to Uruguay. A draw for Japan would need Portugal to win by more than 15 points to go to 14th.
• While Portugal cannot lose any points in defeat, they could still slip from 15th if their Iberian neighbours Spain upset Fiji or USA beat Tonga by more than 15 points.
• Such a defeat for Tonga could see them fall another place to 19th depending on the results of teams around them.
• Chile cannot enter the top 20 for the first time in their own right if they beat the Netherlands as it would also need Romania slip to defeat against Canada.
• One thing that is certain, though, is that a second victory for Brazil over Hong Kong China in as many weeks would lift Os Tupis to a new high of 23rd.
• In fact Brazil could go as high as 22nd if they win by more than 15 points – the margin was 13 last weekend – and Canada lose.
• There is also plenty of scope for change between 30th and 40th with seven teams in action across three continents.
• Two of these, Uganda and Kenya, will swap places for the second week running if the Rugby Cranes can win the Men’s Elgon Cup second leg on home soil.
• Meanwhile, a new high will await the United Arab Emirates if they can upset Germany in Dubai with a gain of up to nine places to 42nd possible depending on the margin of victory.