How The URC Is Becoming Ever-More Competitive

Round two of the BKT United Rugby Championship saw the competing franchises score a sensational 65 tries, a remarkable return from the weekend’s eight fixtures. The neutral has also been treated to a peak in the form of Zebre Parma - who finished BKT URC 1 at the bottom of the table - who have pushed titanic Leinster and Cell C Sharks all the way in blockbuster spectacles. Not only this but the Dragons (RFC), who were on a six-match losing streak in the BKT URC, turned over a bruising Munster side last weekend. All this furore testifies to the ever-improving quality and competitiveness of the BKT United Rugby Championship. 

The tenacity of the underdog in the BKT URC has seen the percentage of matches settled by seven points or less steadily increase up to the point of a surge in the opening rounds of this year’s competition; 46.7% of the first two round’s games have been settled by this margin. While BKT URC 2 is still young, this spate of nail-biters reflects a longer trend in the competition, with this metric increasing year-upon-year to reach this figure - the greatest of any of the past five seasons of Celtic, Italian and South African rugby.

The improvement in competitiveness seen in the league in this season and the last is one of the major successes of the introduction of four South African franchises. In their first season going head-to-head with Celtic titans such as Leinster, Edinburgh (Rugby), and Munster, three of the four newcomers qualified for the play-offs – and the grand final was fought between the DHL Stormers of Cape Town and the Vodacom Bulls of Pretoria.

At the same time, several northern hemisphere teams have been gradually on the rise.

Ulster’s margins of defeat have steadily decreased over the past four seasons and could be the archetype for other teams’ improvement as the league becomes more competitive.

Ulster have been a genuine contender for each of the league titles in this period – qualifying for playoffs in each competition – but have been closing the gap on those teams which have bested them in the past, notably Leinster. Though the two Irish provinces have met regularly over the seasons in various national conferences, last season McFarland’s men overcame the Dubliners on both occasions that they met in the BKT URC. In the two seasons prior to this, Ulster lost all five of their contests with their fierce rival. Having delivered two thumping wins in their opening fixtures against Connacht and Scarlets, the Ulstermen look good to continue their upwards curve.

A possible explanation for Ulster’s growing threat is the improving quality of their defence: their tackle success has improved season upon season since 2018 and was the best in BKT URC 1. However, the league is generally becoming more competitive because teams are scoring more points rather than improving their defences. The following table shows the average number of tries scored by one team per match for the past four seasons.

Until last season, teams were scoring increasingly fewer tries per match. However, the maiden BKT United Rugby Championship saw the highest average tries scored in recent seasons, with spectators being treated to an extra try per match in 2021/22. This has again gone up a notch in the second season of BKT URC rugby, long may it last!

This trend resonates throughout the league. Teams are not only scoring more points overall, but those points are being shared more evenly. The best way to analyse this is to take the average number of points scored by each team, and then see how spread out they are, using the “standard deviation”. In BKT URC 1, that stat fell to 4.4, its lowest ever, even as teams scored a record-high average of 23.9 points per match.

The long-term pattern is clear: as the league has expanded and teams have continued to improve, fans are being treated to higher-scoring and closer matches than ever before.