World Rugby Men's Rankings preview: 31 January-2 February, 2025

World Rugby has published the ranking permutations for this weekend's opening rounds of the Guinness Men's Six Nations and Rugby Europe Men's Championship.

Permutation highlights:

• Ireland cannot improve their rating with victory over England because of the 8.47-point difference between the teams before home weighting is factored in.
• However, if Ireland fail to beat England at the Aviva Stadium they will be replaced in second place in the rankings by New Zealand.
• Ireland will drop a further place to fourth if they lose by more than 15 points and France beat Wales in the first game of the tournament on Friday, in which case Les Bleus will move up to third.
• France, just like Ireland, cannot improve their rating with victory this weekend as a result of the 14.50 points difference between themselves and Wales before home weighting is factored in.
• Les Bleus cannot fall from fourth place even if they suffer a heavy loss at home to Wales.
• Scotland can only gain a maximum of 0.35 rating for beating 10th-ranked Italy at Murrayfield, meaning England could jump two places to fifth if they beat defending Guinness Men’s Six Nations champions Ireland by more than 15 points.
• Victory by a smaller margin would still lift England above Scotland into sixth place.
• The outcome would be the same if both sides taste defeat in the opening round of the Men’s Six Nations 2025.
• Italy, though, can boost their rating significantly and will become the higher-ranked of the two teams if they come away from Murrayfield with a convincing victory.
• A win by more than 15 points would see the Azzurri equal their highest-ever ranking of eighth, while relegating Scotland to ninth.
• Wales cannot improve on 11th place even if they beat France by more than 15 points in Saint-Denis, a scenario that would still leave them more than a point adrift of a beaten Italy.
• With the four highest-ranked teams in the Rugby Europe Men’s Championship 2025 all at home for their opening fixture, none of Georgia, Portugal, Romania and Spain can improve their rating this weekend.
• However, there are gains possible for all of their opponents if they can cause an upset, notably Switzerland who would jump to a record high of 25th if they beat defending champions Georgia on their Rugby Europe Men’s Championship debut.
• A first Rugby Europe Men’s Championship defeat for Georgia since 2017 would see them drop two places with Japan and Samoa the beneficiaries.
• Belgium will also gain multiple places if they repeat last year’s result in Mons and beat Portugal in Lisbon with a climb as high as 22nd possible – an outcome which would see Portugal fall at least one place.
• Spain can only climb the rankings if their Iberian rivals Portugal lose by more than 15 points, but will fall one or two places in defeat.
• The Netherlands stand to gain two places if they can convert last year’s near-miss against Spain into a victory.
• A win for Germany away to Romania would result in them climbing back into the world’s top 30.
• Meanwhile, defeat for Romania will see them slip out of the top 20 for the first time since the rankings were introduced in October 2003.
• There is one match in the Rugby Europe Men’s Conference in Andorra La Vella this weekend with Israel at home against Andorra.
• Israel cannot improve their rating with victory as a result of the 8.47 points difference before home weighting is factored in.
• However, Andorra will jump to a new high of 80th in victory with 77th possible if the margin is by more than 15 points. Israel will fall at least four places in defeat to 66th.