World Rugby Men's Rankings preview: 19-21 July, 2024

World Rugby has published the ranking permutations for the July internationals this weekend.

Permutation highlights:

• Only two of the teams ranked in the top five in the world are in action this weekend, with South Africa taking on Portugal for the first time in test rugby in Bloemfontein and New Zealand up against Fiji in San Diego, USA.
• Neither South Africa, who’ve been top of the rankings since October last year, and New Zealand in third can gain any ground because they are playing teams with a significantly lower rating.
• If the Springboks fail to beat Portugal, however, they will lose their status as the world’s number one team to Ireland.
• While unlikely, it is mathematically possible for the Springboks to drop to third with the All Blacks moving up to second behind Ireland. It would take a win of more than 15 points by Os Lobos for that scenario to pan out.
• A first-ever loss to Fiji will not see New Zealand lose any ground as France and England, the teams directly below them, are too far back to leapfrog the All Blacks, even with the points deduction that would come with defeat.
• Just as South Africa and New Zealand cannot improve their rating, Scotland will not receive any additional points for beating a Chile side that is 21.43 points and 16 places worse off than them.
• The same is true for Argentina, who meet Uruguay for the first time in nine years in Montevideo. Los Pumas go into the game ranked seventh and with a rating of 81.64 points – a difference of 10 places and 14.27 points.
• Italy will climb one place to an all-time high of seventh if they can beat the Brave Blossoms in Japan and Uruguay do them a favour by beating Los Pumas.
• If results and the scorelines fall their way, a victorious Fiji can climb a maximum of three places to a record-equalling high of seventh – a position they occupied briefly ahead of Rugby World Cup 2023.
• Australia could return to eighth with victory over Georgia, although an Azzurri win in Japan would deny them that opportunity.
• The game between Australia and Georgia will have major repercussions as far as the rankings are concerned if the Lelos come away from Sydney with a first victory over a Rugby Championship side under their belts.
• A win by more than 15 points would send Georgia into the world’s top 10 for the first time, while relegating Australia to a record low of 11th.
• Any form of Georgia win, meanwhile, would lead to Wales falling to 12th, only a couple of weeks after they dropped out of the top 10 for the first time in history.
• Japan will move above Samoa into 13th place in the rankings if they bounce back from last weekend’s defeat to Georgia with a win against Italy.
• Portugal can move above Japan if they emulate the Brave Blossoms’ achievement at RWC 2015 and pull off one of the biggest shocks in the history of test rugby.
• However, Japan cannot be overtaken by Portugal if they beat against Italy, regardless of the scoreline in Bloemfontein.
• The prize for a Chile win over Scotland is a place in the world’s top 20 for the first time.
• Lower down the rankings, the four matches in the Rugby Africa Men’s Cup 2024 may have an impact, although a win for Namibia over Burkina Faso would make no difference due to the near 30-point difference in the ratings of the teams.
• Uganda are the only lower-ranked team that can move above their beaten opponent in victory. The Rugby Cranes take on Zimbabwe knowing that they need to win by more than 15 points to achieve that goal.

Match officials:

• Matthew Carley (England) will referee New Zealand v Fiji for the first time, both teams having a W3, L2 record with him in the middle. He refereed both teams at RWC 2023, New Zealand beating Italy and Fiji losing to Wales.
• James Doleman (New Zealand) takes charge of Australia v Georgia for the first time, having been an assistant referee when the teams met at Rugby World Cup 2023. 
• Hollie Davidson (Scotland) will be in the middle for South Africa v Portugal in Bloemfontein, her first test in charge of a team from The Rugby Championship.
• Luc Ramos (France) will referee the Uruguay v Argentina match in Montevideo, the first time he has been in charge of either of the South American nations.
• Mathieu Raynal (France) will referee his 50th and final test match with Chile v Scotland in Santiago, becoming the fourth Frenchman to reach the milestone. 
• Christophe Ridley (England) will take charge of Japan in a test for the first time when they take on Italy in Sapporo. He oversaw Italy's 13-13 draw with France on his Guinness Men's Six Nations debut in the middle earlier this year.  
• Pablo Deluca (Argentina) will referee Brazil v Hong Kong China, the first time he referees the Asian side. 

• Mauro Rossi (Argentina) will make his test debut with Paraguay v Belgium in Asuncion