World Ranking Permutations for the 1st Round of 6 Nations/Rugby Europe

World Rugby has published the ranking permutations for the opening rounds of the men's Guinness Six Nations and Rugby Europe Championship 2023 this weekend. 

Permutation highlights:

• Ireland are guaranteed to remain at number one if they win in Cardiff for the first time in the Six Nations in 10 years.
• Their nearest rivals France cannot improve their rating with victory over Italy due the 14.06 points between the teams before home weighting is factored in.
• The simplest way that France can return to number one – a position they have occupied once before, for a solitary week in July 2022 – is if they win and Ireland draw or lose in Cardiff.
• However, a defeat for Ireland means that Les Bleus would also go top with a draw in Italy.
• A third team is in mix to end the weekend as number one in New Zealand, who will return to top spot if both Ireland and France lose to lower-ranked teams.
• World champions South Africa would climb two places to second in this scenario.
• Ireland can drop three places to fourth in defeat. They will escape with a two-place drop if France lose by the same margin in Rome as the Irish do in Cardiff.
• Neither Ireland nor France can drop out of the top four in defeat as England would still be at least 2.62 rating points adrift if they beat Scotland.
• A second consecutive win at Twickenham would see Scotland become the higher ranked of the two nations with a two-place jump to fifth.
• Fifth would equal Scotland’s highest position in the rankings, one they last occupied in May 2018.
• A home defeat by more than 15 points would see England also drop below Australia.
• Wales must beat Ireland by more than 15 points to climb above Argentina into eighth. If they do – and Scotland lose by the same margin to England – then Wales will assume seventh spot.
• Italy will return to the top 10 for the first time since June 2013 if they beat France.
• The Azzurri start the weekend in 12th but would leapfrog Samoa and Japan in victory. Ninth is possible if the Azzurri win by more than 15 points and Wales lose by the same margin.
• A draw would be enough for Italy to replace Samoa in 11th.
• Georgia cannot improve their rating with victory over Germany in the opening round of the Rugby Europe Championship 2023 due to the 22.40 points between the sides before home weighting is factored in.
• Failure to win would cost the Lelos one place in the rankings with Fiji the side to profit.
• Germany would climb three places to 28th if they can become the first team to beat the Lelos at home in the competition in 19 years.
• While the gap between Romania and their opponents Poland isn’t quite as big (11.76 before home weighting is factored in) as between Georgia and Germany, the Oaks cannot improve their position with victory alone.
• They will only climb the rankings if their victory is in tandem with defeats by Portugal or Spain, the latter needing to be by more than 15 points.
• A win for Poland in their opening match in the Rugby Europe Championship would see them climb at least two places, above Switzerland and the Netherlands – providing the Dutch don’t pull off a shock win away to Spain, in which case Poland would only move up one position.
• Portugal cannot improve their rating with victory over Belgium due to the 10 points between the sides before home weighting is factored in.
• Belgium need to win by more than 15 points to climb above Russia into 25th.
• Such a heavy defeat would see Portugal drop down to 20th.
• It is not possible for Spain to improve on 16th place this weekend as a victory over the Netherlands would not come with any reward due to the 14.05 points between the sides before home weighting is factored in.
• However, Los Leones could fall as low as 20th in defeat, depending on the margin and the results for Portugal and Romania.
• The Dutch could climb as high as 26th if their winning margin is by more than 15 points and Belgium don’t upset Portugal.