Super Rugby Round 3 Preview Part 1

After two rounds of Super Rugby’s 18 rounds before the play-offs, we already have 11 of the 15 teams having suffered a defeat, with only the Hurricanes, Chiefs, and Stormers winning their first two games, and the Cheetahs winning their first game before a second round bye.

The Hurricanes play their third away game in three weeks, facing the Force in Perth on their way home from South Africa, the Chiefs are at home to the Crusaders, the Stormers play the Lions in Johannesburg, while the Cheetahs host the Blues in Bloemfontein – which means we are likely to reduce the number of unbeaten teams by one or two at least.

Competition is so tight in Super Rugby this year that it remains far too early to make confident predictions on probable play-off teams.

Highlanders v Reds  

Match-ups between the Reds and Highlanders have traditionally been close, with each team having won 9 of the 18 clashes over the years, and the last six games have all been won by seven points or fewer. Friday’s game in Dunedin is likely to be similarly tight.

The Reds played with more skill and enthusiasm against the Force last week after a miserable thrashing by the Brumbies in their opening fixture. Quade Cooper’s shoulder injury will keep him out for another few weeks, and Karmichael Hunt has been stood down ahead of his appearance in court on allegations of supplying drugs, but the good news for Queenslanders is that James O’Connor makes his debut for the Reds on Friday.

His form in Super Rugby could be indicative of the Wallabies chances of achieving success at the World Cup, even though he is expected to be selected out wider than 10 for Australia.

Following their first round bye, the Highlanders gave a good account of themselves in their loss to the Crusaders last week. The unavailability of Lima Sopoaga (who has returned home to Wellington to be with his ailing father) is a setback for the home team, while co-captain Nasi Manu is struggling with food poisoning.

Key players: For the Reds: James O’Connor at 10 and former All Black Adam Thomson – in superb form last week – at 6. For the Highlanders: Three of the most skilful backs in Super Rugby – fullback Ben Smith, outside centre Malakai Fekitoa, and scrumhalf Aaron Smith.

The big match-ups: Sopoaga’s replacement Marty Banks vs O’Connor at 10, two of the best scrumhalves/halfbacks in the world, Will Genia vs Aaron Smith, and the clash between the two openside flanks, Liam Gill and John Hardie, both of whom aren’t starting flanks for their countries simply because of the exceptionally high standard of their competition for the 7 jersey.

Force v Hurricanes

The Force have won only one game of the eight they’ve played against the Hurricanes, with Friday’s visitors having won the last six in a row.

In their first two games this year, the Force have won only 69% of their line-outs and 59% of their scrums, which is the lowest in the competition – a major concern. Most impressive of the Hurricanes stats is their total of 24 turnovers, the highest of any team over the first two rounds.

The Force beat the defending champion Waratahs two weeks ago, when they were allowed to slow the game down to a pedestrian plod, but then succumbed to the Reds last week. The Hurricanes have started impressively, beating the Lions and Bulls at altitude in South Africa.

Key player Matt Hodgson (hamstring) remains out of the Force line-up, while Hurricanes captain Conrad Smith (rested) sits out this week.

The Force have the advantage of playing at home, while the Hurricanes are at the end of three weeks away from Wellington. Victory for the home team will depend primarily on an improved set piece and bringing their possibly underrated backs into play. The Hurricanes bring winning momentum from Africa, but winning won’t be easy in Perth.

Key players: For the Hurricanes: Dane Coles, captaining the Hurricanes for the first time; Julian Savea, always a potential match-winner, and Ma’a Nonu, who will be battling with Sonny Bill Williams for the All Black 12 jersey. For the Force: Pek Cowan returns to loosehead and will be key to stabilising the team’s fragile scrummaging. Kyle Godwin has had few chances to show whether his switch from inside to outside centre is a good idea; he is skilful and needs more ball.Alby Mathewson is always important to the Force performance, as much for his competitive ferocity as for his skills.

The big match-ups: At 9, Mathewson vs Chris Smylie (and later TJ Perenara off the bench). At inside centre, Solomoni Jnr Rasolea vs Ma’a Nonu. The scrumming contest between loosehead Pek Cowan and tighthead Ben Franks.

Cheetahs v Blues

The Blues have had an unhappy opening two weeks, losing to the Chiefs and then to the Stormers, in the latter game hampered by a rush of blood to the head by Hayden Triggs, which saw him red carded with 56 minutes left to play. The Blues showed energy and enthusiastic commitment against the Stormers after Triggs’s misdemeanour, but need to overcome the haphazard nature of their performance. They need desperately to raise their level of team synergy.

The Cheetahs scored a surprise but meritorious first round win over the Sharks, followed by a second round bye. Can they play more consistently this year? Can they win two consecutive games for the first time since May 2013? The Blues have never lost their first three Super games, but unless they up their game, it could happen this year.

Neither team fields the team they’d like to have. The Cheetahs lack depth and need Heinrich Brussow and Lood de Jager in their line-up, but both are injured, while Keven Mealamu (on All Black break) will be a major asset to the Blues when he returns. The return of Cornal Hendricks boosts the Cheetahs attack, while All Blacks Charlie Faumuina and Patrick Tuipulotu make their first starts of the season for the Blues.

In the last six games between these teams an average of 62 combined points have been scored, and this could be another high-scoring game, with tries aplenty on either side and the result dependent on the more effective defence.

Key players: Sarel Pretorius for the Cheetahs – not for his attacking runs, which is an incisive asset, but for his service to his backs, his kicking game, and his decision-making, which are questioned. The two attacking kingpins on either side: Charles Piutau and Willie le Roux. Can Ihaia West‘s distribution and decision-making ignite his backline?

The big match-ups: We have an absorbing scrummaging contest between tighthead Coenie Oosthuizen and loosehead Tony Woodcock. Two of the most accurate goalkickers in Super Rugby match up: Joe Pietersen and Ihaia West. Charles Piutau moves to outside centre, where he will test Francois Venter’s defence.