Rugby World Cup 2023 Pool B permutations

With the Rugby World Cup 2023 quarter-final line-ups still uncertain, here are the full pool permutations with one round of matches left to play.

With one round of the Rugby World Cup 2023 pool phase left to play, only two teams - Wales and England - are already guaranteed qualification for the quarter-finals. Six places in the last eight are still to play for and below we outline how results in each of the pools could still affect the outcome. 

These permutations also highlight teams who can secure automatic qualification for Rugby World Cup 2027 by finishing no lower than third in their pool.

Pool B

Tonga and Romania cannot qualify for the quarter-finals as they are both on zero points with one game left to play against each other. They are also both incapable of finishing in the top three spots of their pool, automatic qualification for 2027 will go to Scotland, Ireland and South Africa regardless of any further results.

Both quarter-final places are still to be decided:

• Scotland must beat Ireland and deny the Irish a bonus point to finish second on the head-to-head rule with South Africa topping the pool.
• If Ireland get a bonus point and Scotland do not, Ireland will top the pool on the head-to-head rule from South Africa.
• A Scotland bonus-point win without Ireland getting anything from the game will see them qualify in second place behind South Africa. The Springboks would finish top on the head-to-head rule.
• If Scotland win and both teams get a bonus point, then they join South Africa on 15 points and points difference will determine top spot in Pool B.
• Scotland must win by 21 points or more to claim top spot ahead of South Africa (South Africa +117, Ireland +122 and Scotland +97). Ireland would then qualify as runners-up on the head-to-head rule, having beaten South Africa. If Scotland do not win by such a margin, then South Africa will finish top on points difference and Scotland second on the head-to-head rule.
• Ireland will guarantee top spot if they secure two points from their match against Scotland.