Explained: Super Rugby Playoff Permutations after Round 11

The Chiefs extended their franchise record of consecutive victories to ten with a 52-28 crushing of the Highlanders in Dunedin. The Crusaders looked ominous in their destruction of the Force in Christchurch while the Fijian Drua moved three places up the table with a dramatic victory against the Hurricanes. 

The Brumbies narrowly maintained second place against the Rebels and Moana Pasifika showed they could be a real spoiler when they were denied a famous victory at Eden Park when they conceded a penalty try with the last play of the game. 

On present standings, the quarterfinals would be (home team listed first):

Chiefs v Fijian Drua
Brumbies v Reds
Crusaders v Hurricanes
Blues v Waratahs
 
Chiefs

Current position: 1
Current points: 45
Remaining matches:
Reds (h)
Hurricanes (h)
Brumbies (a)
Force (a)
Possible maximum points: 65

New Plymouth hosts its first game of the season on Friday night when the Reds visit. The Chiefs are warm favourites after an impressive thrashing of the Highlanders. Prop George Dyer scored one of the tries of the season and Daniel Rona enhanced his growing reputation in midfield. Two more wins will almost certainly secure the top spot for the Chiefs.

Brumbies

Current position: 2
Current points: 36
Remaining matches:
Highlanders (h)
Force (a)
Chiefs (h)
Rebels (h)
Possible maximum points: 56

Three home games in the last month of the round robin is a generous draw for the Brumbies who will look to improve their defence having conceded 58 points in the last two matches. The Brumbies have won their last five matches at GIO Stadium and will back themselves to tame the struggling Highlanders who have lost four matches in a row. The Rebels is another winnable match while the Chiefs will provide a good litmus test before the playoffs.
 
Blues

Current position: 3
Current points: 34
Remaining matches:
Crusaders (a)
Reds (a)
Hurricanes (h)
Highlanders (h)
Possible maximum points: 54

The Blues were very lucky to escape with a victory against Moana Pasifika. A similarly inaccurate performance against the Crusaders this Saturday will not yield a win in Christchurch. However, the Blues beat the Crusaders on home soil last year and can be hearted by their composure and scrum at the end. An upset of the Crusaders would put considerable pressure on the Brumbies to keep winning to maintain second. The Blues have two Eden Park fixtures against the Hurricanes and Highlanders to finish. 
 
Crusaders 

Current position: 4
Current points: 33
Remaining matches:
Blues (h)
Moana (a)
Waratahs (h)
Hurricanes (a)
Possible maximum points: 53

The Crusaders attack looked reinvigorated with the return of Will Jordan against the Western Force. The Blues have only won twice in Christchurch since 2004 and despite travelling South with four wins in a row will be ripe for the taking if they are as inaccurate as they were against Moana Pasifika. A win against the Blues could be the catalyst for the Crusaders to make a push for the top two.  
 
Hurricanes

Current position: 5
Current points: 32
Remaining matches:
Moana Pasifika (h)
Chiefs (a)
Blues (a)
Crusaders (h)
Possible maximum points: 52

The Hurricanes blew a handy lead to lose to the Drua. The Hurricanes are the first New Zealand team to lose to both Fijian Drua and Moana Pasifika. Moana Pasifika will fancy their chances of a repeat upset after their brave display against the Blues on Saturday.  If the Hurricanes were to stumble again, they could drop out of top four contention altogether with fixtures against the 2022 finalists and 2023 chart toppers to come.

Waratahs

Current position: 6
Current points: 21
Remaining matches:
Rebels (h)
Drua (h)
Crusaders (a)
Moana (h)
Possible maximum points: 41

The Waratahs beat the Crusaders in 2022 but on current form and away from home are unlikely to repeat that success. However, with three fixtures left against teams below them in the standings they should make the playoffs and possibly climb to fifth.
 
Queensland Reds

Current position: 7
Current points: 19
Remaining matches:
Chiefs (a)
Blues (h)
Highlanders (a)
Drua (a)
Possible maximum points: 39

The Reds run home isn’t kind with three away fixtures and a home engagement with the Blues in a fortnight. The last two games of the season will likely decide their playoff fate but it isn’t looking good despite a number of Wallabies in the roster.
 
Fijian Drua

Current position: 8
Current points: 17
Remaining matches:
Force (a)
Waratahs (a)
Moana (h)
Reds (h)
Possible maximum points: 37

The Fijian Drua leapt three places up the table with their epic win against the Hurricanes. If they can find a way to win on the road in the next two weeks, they are a strong chance of making the playoffs for the first time with two home games against a struggling Reds and winless Moana Pasifkia to finish. Vibrant, unpredictable play coupled with infectiously enthusiastic fans have made the Drua a joy to watch.

Melbourne Rebels

Current position: 9
Current points: 15
Remaining matches:
Waratahs (a)
Highlanders (a)
Force (h)
Brumbies (a)
Possible maximum points: 35

The Rebels have lost six games by ten points or less this season which means they can’t be taken lightly. However, a lack of killer instinct in key moments and three away games to finish means they’ll be hard-pushed to make the playoffs. A win against the Highlanders in Dunedin though could change that.

Highlanders

Current position: 10
Current points: 15
Remaining matches:
Brumbies (a)
Rebels (h)
Reds (h)
Blues (a)
Possible maximum points: 35

The Highlanders have lost four games on the bounce but with home fixtures against the Rebels and Reds to come still have a reasonable chance of climbing the table and securing a playoff berth. If the Blues are safely in the top four by the last round, they might field a weaker roster but it’s hard to see the Highlanders winning on the road on recent efforts.

Western Force

Current position: 11
Current points: 13
Remaining matches:
Drua (h)
Brumbies (h)
Rebels (a)
Chiefs (h)
Possible maximum points: 33

All three Force wins have come at home this season. A win over the Drua could see the Force climb back into the top eight at the end of Round 12. The Force beat the Rebels in the first round while the Chiefs might have secured the top spot by Round 15 meaning a weaker squad might be selected ahead of the playoffs.
 
Moana Pasifika

Current position: 12
Current points: 3
Remaining matches:
Hurricanes (a)
Crusaders (h)
Fijian Drua (a)
Waratahs (a)
Possible maximum points: 23
 
Although Moana Pasifika’s playoff chances are only mathematical, they can still play a big role in the makeup of the final eight. The four teams they have left to play all need wins over Moana Pasifika to either secure a home quarterfinal (Hurricanes and Crusaders) or make the playoffs (Fijian Drua and Waratahs). Moana Pasifika produced their best performance of the season on Saturday by almost toppling the Blues suggesting they haven’t waved the white flag in 2023.