EVERY GAME COUNTS: Jeopardy for Ospreys, Big Benetton test & more

Round 11 of the championship gets underway this weekend and we've taken a look at some of the biggest game insights ahead of another cracking schedule of games.

Edinburgh v Ospreys

Match-up Insight

– The Ospreys have the highest jeopardy of any team this weekend (30%). If they lose, their playoff probability is predicted to fall to 18%.

– The Ospreys have won once outside of Wales since October 2021: against Zebre in January 2023.

– These two teams concede the fewest and third-fewest turnovers in the URC: 10.1 and 10.9 per 80 minutes respectively. However, Edinburgh have won the second-most turnovers in the league (6.8 per 80).

Edinburgh

– Edinburgh average nearly three more offloads when they play at home and 9.6 in matches they’ve won this season.

Ospreys

– The Ospreys have made an average of 10.5 red zone entries per 80 minutes in matches they’ve won this season compared to 6.8 in matches they’ve lost. 

Munster v Zebre Parma

Match-up Insight

– Munster have made a league-high average of 127 carries per 80 minutes this season whereas Zebre have made the second-fewest (93 per 80).

Munster

– When Munster win, they average more metres per possession than any other team (10.2).

– Munster have conceded an average of 12 penalties per 80 minutes when they’ve lost this season compared to 7.8 when they’ve won.

Zebre Parma

– Last weekend, Zebre scored a round-high average of 6.3 points per entry.

– Zebre have made a league-low average of 278 carry metres per 80 minutes this season. The average winning team has averaged 384.

Emirates Lions v Hollywoodbets Sharks

Match-up Insight

– The Sharks have the highest rate of carry dominance in the URC (33.4%) and the Lions have the third-highest (28.5%).

Emirates Lions

– The Lions made fewer carries last weekend than they have in a match all season (67). Only one team has won in a match when they’ve made fewer than 70 carries and the average winning team this season has made 113.

– The Lions have beaten an average of 24.5 defenders per 80 minutes when they’ve won this season compared to 16.8 when they’ve lost.

Hollywoodbets Sharks

– Whenever 40% or more of the Sharks’ kicks in play have been contestable, they have either won or been within a score.

The average winning team has conceded 11.8 turnovers per 80 minutes this season. The Sharks have conceded a league-high average of 14.9.

Benetton v Glasgow Warriors

Match-up Insight

– Before their loss to Leinster in Round 10, Benetton’s playoff probability was 86%. If they lose again this weekend, this is predicted to fall to 60%.

– Benetton have made the third-most kicks in play in the league (an average of 28.4 per 80 minutes) whereas Glasgow have averaged the fewest: 19.3 per 80 minutes.

Benetton

– Benetton have averaged 200 more kick in play metres when they’ve won this season than when they’ve lost.

– When Benetton have won this season, their post-contact metres per carry have increased by 43%.

Glasgow Warriors

– Glasgow won a round-high four scrum penalties last weekend and have won an average of 2.4 in matches they’ve won this season.

Vodacom Bulls v DHL Stormers

Match-up Insight

– These two sides have offloaded more than any others. The Stormers have made an average of 12 offloads per 80 minutes (1st) and the Bulls have made an average of 10.1 (2nd).

– The Bulls and the Stormers are both among the top three teams for clean breaks: the Stormers have made an average of 8.3 per 80 minutes and the Bulls have averaged 7.5.

Vodacom Bulls

– The Bulls have made an average of 9.1 clean breaks in matches they’ve won compared to 3.7 in those they’ve lost.

– The Bulls have made 61% more carry metres per match when they’ve won than when they’ve lost.

DHL Stormers

– The Stormers’ lineout success this season has been 95.1% when they’ve won compared to 74.1% when they’ve lost.

Connacht v Scarlets

Match-up Insight

– These two teams play the most in the middle of the pitch: 66.9% of Connacht’s carries this season have been made between the 15-metre lines; 65.8% for the Scarlets.

Connacht

– Connacht have averaged more than ten dominant tackles in matches they’ve won this season compared in 6.3 in those they’ve lost.

– Connacht have won 61% more turnovers per match when they’ve won than when they’ve lost this season.

Scarlets

– The Scarlets have conceded more penalties than any other team this season (112) and conceded the joint-most last weekend (13).

– The Scarlets have made an average of 761 kick in play metres per 80 minutes when they’ve won this season, compared to 614 when they’ve lost.

Cardiff Rugby v Leinster

Match-up Insight

– 15% of Leinster’s carries and tackles have been dominant this season (2nd) compared to 10.1% of Cardiff’s (14th).

– Leinster have won their last seven matches against Welsh opposition. Their last loss was against Cardiff in January 2022.

Cardiff Rugby

– When Cardiff have won this season, they’ve made 25% more carry metres than when they’ve lost. Last weekend, they made fewer carry metres than they have in any other match this season (167).

– Win nine turnovers: when Cardiff have won this season, they have won more turnovers per 80 minutes than any other team (9.3).

Leinster

– Prioritise moving the ball: in matches they’ve won this season, 57% of Leinster’s touches have been passes compared to 50.8% in matches they’ve lost.